2016年1月16日星期六

What would be the easiest pro sports league to take down with a rival league?

The NBA.

Let's cut to the chase: Of the 450 or so players under contract in the NBA, maybe 25 YOUNG players, max, put butts in seats: LeBron, Kobe, D. Rose, Melo, Durant, Howard, Harden, Duncan, CP3... the list gets thin pretty quickly, doesn't it?

OK, every one of those players will be available at some point in the next 4-5 years.  Plus, every one of those players has a capped income under the NBA salary cap.  Plus, every rookie entering the NBA has a capped income.

If I were, say, a Middle Eastern Sheikh flush with cash, or a really bored multi-billionaire... I'd call LeBron, Durant, Dwight Howard, CP3 and James Harden and offer each of them $40-100mm annually.  We'll also sign the top 10 picks in this year's NBA draft for $5-10mm each annually to round out our roster.

Everybody makes 2-3x base -- and the NBA can't match because of its salary and rookie caps; plus, they kill it in endorsements, because we're global here.  You're really telling me Nike won't sponsor us?  And if not, fine, Reebok will.  Etc.

I'd tell them they can punt the 82 game plus playoffs NBA schedule, and star instead on a world super team, that will play 25-50 games annually, and that will take on all comers, on any court, at any time.  Games to be broadcast worldwide on the web on on TV (pretty sure we'll get big dollars for the TV rights, which we won't have to share with other NBA teams -- think a ESPN or Verizon or Comcast might want exclusives on our content, for example?). I'd declare the team the True World Champions.  Then, I'd have LeBron and Dwight go on social media and dare any NBA team to play them... every... single.. day.

Would that team sell out everywhere? Yes.  Would it make back sponsor dollars that could pay every salary?  Yes.  You think say, Qatar or Emirates Airlines wouldn't sponsor THAT team? And would social media ultimately force a matchup with the best NBA team (and likely merger of Super Team back into the NBA, with the franchise being worth Celtics-Lakers type money?) Yes.  All wins.
So we make money while we build a billion dollar franchise.  Nice exit.
Plus, it would be tons of fun.

Now, the NFL -- because of its rookie cap, team salary cap, and especially because of the shortness of player careers -- could be similarly vulnerable.

You'd load up on skill guys -- sign like RG3, A.J. Green, Calvin Johnson, Adrian Peterson, J.J. Watt and Aldon Smith and Von Miller, Patrick Peterson and Richard Sherman, etc.  Same idea as above.

But the NFL Super Team is a harder sell; you'd really need 3-4 Super Teams and a rival league to the NFL -- a USFL on steroids, backed by REALLY deep pockets to pull this off.  Apple could sponsor a league like that, easily, and own 100% of its exclusive content.  It's do-able.  The USFL almost pulled this off BEFORE social media, and without deep pocketed owners.  Today?  It would be easier -- much easier, frankly.

In hockey, look, the KHL had the NHL worried recently.  You take Crosby, Ovechkin, Stamkos, Quick, Doughty, Chara, Weber, Kane and Toews out of the NHL... you're telling me we can't take a run at the best NHL teams?

Tennis would be easy -- we'll take Serena and Sharapova, you take the rest of the WTA; we'll take Djokovic and Rafa and Murray, you take the rest of the ATP. 
Golf would be easy: Give us Tiger and Phil, Inbee and Michelle and Paula and we're pretty much done there.

Baseball is probably the hardest to attack, because of the lack of a salary cap.. and because you'd really need to raid about 50 stars to dent MLB.

Point is: Every pro league is vulnerable. And as content becomes commoditized, and the power curves in each league become ever more severe (people want to see the BEST, not the commoditized), fewer and fewer TRUE stars exist that can move the needle in each league -- making every league more vulnerable.

It's going to happen.  The only question is when it happens.

John DeMarchi
Written 7-3-13.

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